Recent international reports highlight that the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara has accumulated seismic energy to a critical level, significantly increasing the probability of a 7.4 magnitude earthquake that could directly affect Istanbul. This assessment, published in prominent outlets such as The New York Times and Tagesspiegel, underscores the growing risk due to the prolonged absence of a major seismic event in the region.
North Anatolian Fault Under Scrutiny Again
The North Anatolian Fault, located around the Sea of Marmara, is once again a global concern following new scientific examinations. Analyses in US and German publications indicate that tectonic stress, accumulating over many years, is now concentrated towards Istanbul, thereby elevating the risk of a major earthquake.
Recent Tremors Fuel Concerns
A 6.2 magnitude earthquake on April 23 in the Sea of Marmara was felt across a wide area in Istanbul and surrounding provinces. This tremor, occurring approximately 60 kilometers offshore, was one of the strongest recorded on the North Anatolian Fault in recent decades, reigniting discussions about regional seismic risk.
The Long Silence: A Warning Sign
Historical records show significant seismic activity in the western Marmara region in 1912 and in the east with the 1999 Izmit earthquake. However, the Marmara fault segment between these two areas has not experienced a major earthquake since 1766. Scientific analyses suggest that this prolonged seismic silence indicates a continuous accumulation of energy.
High Probability of a Major Rupture
A study cited by Tagesspiegel suggests that the energy accumulated in the Marmara Fault is more likely to be released through a single, powerful rupture rather than through smaller tremors. In this scenario, an earthquake of approximately 7.4 magnitude could cause significant casualties and property damage in Istanbul and its environs.
Risk Becomes More Tangible
The published analyses emphasize that the earthquake threat to Istanbul is no longer a theoretical possibility but has become a more concrete risk. While close monitoring of seismic activity in the Marmara Region is crucial, the current situation is escalating public concern.
