Earthquake Expert’s Critical Warning: Expected Quake to Affect 10 Provinces, Not Just Istanbul
Date of Publication: February 5, 2026
Last Updated: February 5, 2026
Applies To: Residents and authorities in Istanbul and surrounding Marmara provinces
Professor Dr. Haluk Eyidoğan, a prominent earthquake expert, has issued a significant warning regarding the long-anticipated major earthquake in the Marmara region. Speaking at the ‘Disaster-Resilient Tekirdağ Workshop’ organized by the Tekirdağ Metropolitan Municipality at the Yılmaz İçöz Stage, Eyidoğan stressed that the quake, often referred to as the ‘Istanbul earthquake,’ will in fact be a ‘Marmara earthquake,’ impacting up to 10 provinces.
Why is it a ‘Marmara Earthquake,’ not an ‘Istanbul Earthquake’?
Professor Dr. Eyidoğan highlighted that the expected earthquake will not originate within Istanbul itself but rather in the Marmara Sea. “It is called the ‘Istanbul earthquake,’ but the earthquake will not be in Istanbul, it will be in the Marmara Sea. If an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher occurs in the Marmara Sea, Istanbul and 7 to 10 other provinces bordering the Marmara will be affected. Therefore, this is not an Istanbul earthquake, but a Marmara earthquake,” he explained.
Eyidoğan further emphasized that a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake in Marmara would have severe social and economic repercussions not only for the region but for Turkey as a whole.
Destruction Cannot Be Explained by Fault Lines Alone
Eyidoğan pointed out that the magnitude of an earthquake, rather than the presence of a fault line, is the decisive factor in how cities are affected. “There are provinces with fault lines that are not destroyed, and there are provinces far from fault lines that are destroyed. We saw this clearly in the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes. So, it is not necessary to attribute the event solely to the fault. If we had attributed the event solely to the fault, Avcılar would not have been destroyed in the August 17, 1999 Gölcük-centered earthquake,” he stated.
He continued, “Therefore, large earthquakes are regional earthquakes, and if there is a mistake in the structures, ground, or buildings, it will find and destroy it. So there is such a reality. Destruction cannot be explained only by the fault. Errors in the structure and ground inevitably emerge in large earthquakes.”
Crucial Role of Ground Surveys, Proper Site Selection, and Effective Supervision
Eyidoğan underscored the vital importance of ground surveys, correct site selection, and effective supervision in mitigating earthquake risks. He warned that improper planning, such as settling in liquefaction and landslide areas, poses significant dangers. “Settling in unfavorable places for buildings is the first mistake. The second mistake is opening such places for construction. Therefore, such places should be prohibited from construction. Even if there is no ground problem, mistakes are made during the construction process. So we also have serious deficiencies in the earthquake-resistant building production process. For this reason, when these come together, there is no hope of escape from the earthquake,” he concluded.
Key Takeaways for Residents and Authorities:
- Rethink the Terminology: The upcoming seismic event should be understood as a ‘Marmara earthquake,’ reflecting its widespread impact beyond Istanbul.
- Wider Impact Zone: Be aware that up to 10 provinces bordering the Marmara Sea are at risk, necessitating a broader regional preparedness strategy.
- Beyond Fault Lines: The quality of construction and ground conditions are as critical as fault lines in determining a building’s resilience to earthquakes.
- Prioritize Proper Planning: Emphasize thorough ground surveys, safe site selection, and rigorous construction supervision to prevent catastrophic failures.
- No Room for Error: Any deficiencies in construction or ground stability will be exposed during a major earthquake, making proactive measures essential.
Contact and Further Information:
For more information on earthquake preparedness and local initiatives, residents are encouraged to contact their local municipalities and disaster management agencies.
Tekirdağ Metropolitan Municipality:
- Website: [Please insert official website if available]
- Contact: [Please insert official contact details if available]
Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD):
- Website: www.afad.gov.tr
- Emergency Line: 112
Local Municipalities in Marmara Region: Please check the official websites of your respective municipalities for local disaster preparedness plans and contact information.
