Istanbul Faces Inevitable 7-Magnitude Earthquake, Warns Expert
Istanbul, February 7 – Professor Dr. Süleyman Pampal, a renowned geoscientist, has issued a dire warning regarding an imminent earthquake in Istanbul. He stated that a tremor of nearly 7 magnitude is unavoidable, citing an unbroken fault segment in the Marmara Sea. Pampal emphasized that the earthquake threat is ‘high and close’.
Is an Istanbul Earthquake Inevitable?
Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal highlighted the long-awaited major earthquake facing Istanbul. He asserted, “Istanbul will unfortunately experience an earthquake of nearly 7 magnitude. This fault will break, and the process will be completed.” The expert pointed out that the unbroken fault segment within the Marmara Sea poses a significant risk. Pampal noted that the recurrence period for the earthquake has expired, indicating that time is running out for Istanbul.
Unbroken Segment in Marmara Poses the Greatest Risk
Discussing the structure of the North Anatolian Fault within the Marmara Sea, Pampal explained that the western part of the line extending from Silivri to Ganos broke during the 1912 Ganos Earthquake. However, a dangerous segment remains in the eastern part.
“The approximately 30-35 kilometer section extending from Büyükçekmece to Eminönü has not broken. We cannot speak precisely because it is underwater, but this section will break.”
If this segment breaks, Istanbul, particularly its European side, is expected to be severely affected.
“Earthquake Danger is Quite High and Close”
Prof. Dr. Pampal argued that the major Istanbul earthquake is no longer delayed, stating, “I said there would be an earthquake between 6.5 and 7.0 after April 23. I still hold the same opinion. Istanbul’s earthquake danger is quite high and close.” According to Pampal, this situation applies not only to the northern branch but also to the southern branch of Marmara.
Southern Marmara and Bursa Line Also at Risk
Pampal drew attention to the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault, reminding that the İznik-Gemlik-Pamukova line has not broken since 1065. He stated that this fault has the potential to produce earthquakes of 7-7.5 magnitude. An eventual rupture could affect not only Istanbul but also Bursa, İznik, and Orhangazi.
Adana and Surrounding Areas Receive Fault Warning
Speaking at the “Living with the Reality of Earthquakes” panel in Kozan, Adana, Pampal also highlighted the active faults in Adana and its vicinity. He noted that Kozan, Feke, Saimbeyli, Aladağ, Kadirli, Sumbas, Ceyhan, and Osmaniye are settlements close to active faults. Pampal stated that these faults could produce earthquakes up to magnitude 7. He added that Akçaluşağı, Bozdoğanuşağı, Gezitdağ, and Yardibi faults are located around Kozan, and historically, destructive earthquakes have occurred in the region.
“No Alternative but to Reduce Risks”
Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal concluded by emphasizing that the expected earthquakes in Marmara and its surroundings are inevitable, stating, “Marmara earthquakes are unfortunately expected, the danger is high. There is no alternative but to reduce the risks.”
