Professor Bektaş’s Groundbreaking Statement on Istanbul Earthquake: Not as Destructive as 1999 Izmit
Istanbul, April 20 – Geological Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş has offered a significant new perspective on the anticipated Istanbul earthquake. Examining the physical structure of the Silivri fault, Bektaş provided insights into why the Marmara earthquake might not lead to destruction on the scale of the 1999 Izmit earthquake.
A new approach has emerged from the scientific community regarding the potential tremor expected in the Sea of Marmara. Geological Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş shared critical information concerning the predicted Istanbul earthquake scenario, which is expected to be felt at an intensity of 7 but with a magnitude estimated around 6.4. Bektaş addressed the question of whether Istanbul would experience destruction similar to the 1999 Izmit earthquake, responding with, “Probably not,” and drawing attention to structural differences in the fault lines.
Izmit Fault Three Times More Fragile
Prof. Dr. Bektaş shared technical parameters via social media, comparing the Izmit fault, which produced a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in 1999, with the Silivri fault. According to Bektaş’s analysis, the Izmit fault possesses a crust that is three times thicker and more fragile, a rupture length 6-8 times longer, and a rupture energy 30-40 times greater than the Silivri fault. These physical differences support the potential for the Silivri fault to generate smaller earthquakes.
Hot Mantle Weakened the Fault Line
Explaining why the Silivri fault accumulates less energy, Bektaş pointed to the geological structure beneath the Sea of Marmara. He stated that the Earth’s hot mantle heats and thins the cold, thick crust, and that fluids weaken the fault. A weakened fault releases the small amount of accumulated energy more slowly, which implies a less destructive earthquake potential.
New Regulations Reduce Risks
Bektaş noted that high magnitude estimates in historical earthquakes might stem from misleading factors such as “ground amplification.” He emphasized that the 2018 Earthquake Regulation has largely mitigated these risks. He underlined that Istanbul’s earthquake hazard can be determined more realistically not from historical data, but through parameters obtained with 21st-century technological capabilities and modern regulations.
Source: Jurnal.ist
