Expert Warns of Imminent 7-Magnitude Earthquake for Istanbul
Istanbul, February 7, 2026 – Professor Dr. Süleyman Pampal, a renowned earthquake researcher, has issued a critical assessment regarding the seismic future of the Marmara Region and Istanbul. Speaking at the “Living with the Earthquake Reality” panel in Kozan, Adana, Pampal pointed to an unbroken fault segment within the Marmara Sea, warning that Istanbul faces an earthquake of nearly 7-magnitude. According to the expert, the risk is high, and the time frame for such an event is rapidly narrowing.
Unbroken Fault Segment in Marmara Poses Significant Risk
Professor Pampal emphasized that the most significant danger lies in the unbroken fault segment located within the Marmara Sea. He reiterated that the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault, which runs south of Istanbul from off the coast of Silivri to Tekirdağ, contains an approximately 30-35 kilometer segment that has not yet ruptured. The rupture of this particular segment is expected to directly impact Istanbul with a powerful earthquake.
Pampal, who has issued similar warnings in the past, stated that this fault in the Marmara has the potential to generate an earthquake with a magnitude between 6.5 and 7. He explained that while such a tremor would complete the geological process for this fault, it would have severe consequences for Istanbul.
Historical Recurrence Period Expired for Istanbul Faults
During his address, Pampal highlighted that the historical recurrence period for the faults surrounding Istanbul has already been met. He stressed that a strong earthquake is no longer a possibility but rather an expectation, underscoring the urgency of preparedness.
Southern Fault Line Also Under Threat
The expert also noted that the risk in the Marmara region is not confined solely to the northern fault line. Pampal indicated that the southern branch, extending along the İznik-Gemlik-Pamukova line, has also remained unruptured for centuries. He warned that this southern fault line could generate an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher, a scenario that would affect not only Istanbul but also Bursa and its surrounding areas.
Structural Safety: The Only Solution
According to experts, the reality of an earthquake in the Marmara Region is an undeniable and imminent risk. The only viable solution, they assert, is to enhance structural safety to minimize potential losses. This includes ensuring that buildings are resilient enough to withstand significant seismic activity.
The increasing frequency of warnings from seismic experts like Professor Pampal underscores the critical need for comprehensive urban planning, rigorous building codes, and public awareness campaigns in Istanbul and the broader Marmara region. The consensus among researchers is that proactive measures are essential to mitigate the devastating impact of a large-scale earthquake.
The panel discussion in Kozan served as another crucial reminder for authorities and the public to prioritize earthquake preparedness. With the historical recurrence period for major seismic events in the region having passed, the focus remains on strengthening infrastructure and educating residents on safety protocols to safeguard lives and property.
