Recent international press analyses highlight that seismic energy accumulated along the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara has reached a critical level. According to assessments published in The New York Times and Tagesspiegel, the probability of a 7.4 magnitude earthquake, directly impacting Istanbul, is increasing. The prolonged absence of a major rupture further underscores this risk.
North Anatolian Fault Under Scrutiny
The North Anatolian Fault, situated beneath the Sea of Marmara, is once again a global concern following recent scientific investigations. Analyses featured in US and German publications indicate that tectonic stress, accumulating over many years along the fault line, is now concentrated towards Istanbul, thereby elevating the risk of a major earthquake.
Recent Tremors Heighten Concerns
An earthquake measuring 6.2 magnitudes struck the Sea of Marmara on April 23rd, 2025, and was widely felt across Istanbul and surrounding provinces. This tremor, occurring approximately 60 kilometers offshore, has been identified as one of the strongest recorded along the North Anatolian Fault in recent decades, reigniting discussions about regional seismic risks.
The Long Silence: A Critical Indicator
Historical records show significant ruptures in the western Marmara region in 1912 and in the eastern part with the 1999 İzmit earthquake. However, the Marmara fault segment located between these two areas has not experienced a major earthquake since 1766. Scientific analyses emphasize that this extended period of seismic inactivity suggests a continuous accumulation of energy.
Prospect of a Major Rupture
A study cited by Tagesspiegel suggests that the accumulated energy in the Marmara Fault is more likely to be released through a single, powerful rupture rather than through smaller earthquakes. In this scenario, an earthquake of approximately 7.4 magnitude could lead to significant loss of life and property in Istanbul and its environs.
Risk Becomes More Tangible
The published analyses underscore that the earthquake threat to Istanbul is no longer a theoretical possibility but a more concrete and visible risk. While emphasizing the necessity of closely monitoring seismic activity in the Marmara Region, the current situation has escalated public anxiety.
