New Scenario for Istanbul Earthquake: Geothermal Activity May Prevent Major Rupture
The long-debated scenarios of a major rupture in the Istanbul earthquake are being re-evaluated through the lens of geothermal structures beneath the Marmara Sea. Professor of Geology, Dr. Osman Bektaş, suggests that the high temperatures in the region could significantly alter fault behavior, potentially leading to a more gradual and silent release of energy rather than a devastating earthquake.
Published on January 19, 2026, this new perspective challenges conventional understandings and offers a glimmer of hope amidst persistent seismic anxieties. Dr. Bektaş, a retired professor from Karadeniz Technical University, emphasizes that recent scientific findings regarding the Marmara Sea floor should not be overlooked when assessing earthquake risk. He refers to a 2025 study by Güvercin and Barbot published in Nature, which indicates a shallowing of the Curie depth in Marmara, directly impacting the locking capacity of faults.
High Temperatures Could Prevent Major Rupture
According to Dr. Bektaş, the elevated heat beneath the Marmara Sea makes it difficult for faults to accumulate stress over long periods. This condition favors a process known as ‘silent creep,’ where energy is released slowly and continuously, rather than in an abrupt, large-scale rupture. This mechanism is considered a crucial factor that could limit the intensity of a potential major earthquake.
‘Thermal Shield’ Assessment for Central Marmara
Dr. Bektaş specifically points to the Central Marmara segment, suggesting that this area, due to its high temperatures, could act as a ‘thermal barrier.’ The tendency of the fault to creep rather than lock could naturally impede a cascading and single-segment rupture.
Curie Depth Also Explains Past Earthquakes
Dr. Bektaş’s interpretation suggests that the depth corresponding to the Curie temperature also explains why past earthquakes in Marmara occurred with different characteristics. Accordingly:
- The 1999 İzmit and 1912 Western Marmara earthquakes occurred in more locked fault segments.
- Earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above in 1963 and 2025 were associated with partially locked and partially creeping faults.
The seismic crust generating earthquakes in Marmara is considered thinner compared to many other regions.
Scientific Limit to Maximum Earthquake Magnitude
Referring to Güvercin’s 2025 study, Dr. Bektaş states that limiting the maximum predicted earthquake magnitude for the Marmara Sea to M 7.3 provides a scientific upper bound to the long-discussed scenarios of a single-segment rupture of M 7.5 and above. The tendency of faults to rupture in segments and exhibit creep behavior strengthens the possibility of a more controlled energy release.
‘We Must Read Earthquake Risk From a Different Perspective’
Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş asserts that the geothermal conditions beneath the Marmara Sea challenge existing paradigms regarding the Istanbul earthquake. He believes that high temperatures could be one of the most critical factors preventing the anticipated major rupture. According to Dr. Bektaş, earthquake hazard must now be re-evaluated not solely based on fault length and past ruptures, but by taking into account the thermal structure deep within the earth.
This new perspective offers a nuanced understanding of seismic activity in the region, suggesting that the dynamics of the Marmara Sea faults may be more complex and potentially less catastrophic than previously feared. While the risk of an earthquake remains, the possibility of a ‘silent creep’ mechanism introduces a new dimension to risk assessment and mitigation strategies for Istanbul.
Source: News Center
