Professor Bektaş: Istanbul’s Earthquake Fate Not 7.4 Magnitude
Istanbul, June 29, 2026 – A significant statement has emerged regarding the anticipated Marmara earthquake, which is expected to affect Istanbul and many other provinces. Geology Professor Osman Bektaş has challenged the long-discussed 7.4 magnitude earthquake scenarios, which have been predicted to cause widespread devastation. Bektaş stated, “Istanbul’s fate is not 7.4,” emphasizing that scientific studies suggest the expected Istanbul earthquake will be less than 7.0 magnitude.
Scientific Data Challenges Previous Predictions
Professor Bektaş explained, with scientific evidence, that the structure of the fault lines in the Marmara Sea does not indicate a sudden, destructive release of energy. The basis of Professor Dr. Osman Bektaş’s statements is rooted in research conducted by German and Japanese scientists in the region between 2019 and 2023.
Bektaş noted that these studies focused on the “creep” phenomenon, where the fault gradually releases earthquake energy, which has altered the perceived magnitude of the danger. According to the findings, the Kumburgaz segment is not entirely locked, as had been claimed for a long time. Bektaş stated that the fact that the fault is not completely locked indicates that its capacity to produce a massive earthquake has been eliminated.
Evidence of Shallower Fault Zones
Bektaş explained that as one moves from Tekirdağ towards Kumburgaz, the full creep depth of the fault and the earthquake-generating zones become extremely shallow, which he cited as the most concrete data supporting this situation. He further elaborated, “These international studies scientifically demonstrate that the Marmara region cannot produce a single, mega-rupture from end to end, and that the risk will be limited to independent, smaller-scale tremors from smaller segments.”
In light of all these scientific studies, Bektaş underlined that the expected Istanbul earthquake will not be greater than 7.0 magnitude, but rather less than 7.0 magnitude.
Implications for Public Safety and Preparedness
This new assessment from Professor Bektaş offers a different perspective on the seismic risk facing Istanbul. While it does not negate the possibility of an earthquake, it suggests that the potential scale of destruction may be less severe than previously feared. This information is crucial for urban planning, infrastructure development, and public preparedness efforts in Istanbul and the surrounding Marmara region.
The findings from the German and Japanese scientific teams provide valuable insights into the complex geological dynamics of the Marmara Sea. Understanding the specific characteristics of the fault lines, such as the presence of creep, allows for more accurate risk assessments and the development of more targeted mitigation strategies.
Local authorities and emergency services will need to consider these updated scientific perspectives when formulating their earthquake response plans. Public awareness campaigns should also be adjusted to reflect the latest scientific consensus, ensuring that residents are informed with accurate and up-to-date information regarding seismic risks.
The ongoing scientific research into the Marmara earthquake zone highlights the importance of continuous geological monitoring and international collaboration to enhance our understanding of seismic activity and improve our ability to protect communities from natural disasters.
Source: https://www.yenisafak.com/foto-galeri/gundem/istanbul-marmara-depremi-ne-zaman-olacak-istanbul-da-buyuk-deprem-ne-zaman-olacak-uzman-isim-acikladi-4836362
